Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – April 2023

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 4 Apr

In March, the global economy was focused on systemic risk in the banking sector.

Following three bank failures in the U.S., markets were roiled again by the forced sale of Credit Suisse to UBS.
Interest rates have plummeted as demand for the haven of government bonds has increased sharply. Consequently, five-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen roughly 30 basis points as the Fed pondered its next move.

Inevitably, failed banks and fears of additional losses have led many financial institutions to tighten their provision of credit. Although interest rates have fallen worldwide, more cautious lending will slow economic activity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, ground zero for bank failures.

For that reason, many expected the Fed to pause to assess the situation further. The Fed raised its overnight policy rate 25 bps to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, now above the overnight rate in Canada.

Just over two weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress that inflation pressures warranted higher-than-expected interest rates. With the bank failures, the Fed suggests that the target level might be only one or two moves away. However, even with that, the U.S. central bank reasserted that interest rates determined by the Fed will not be reduced until next year.

Market-determined yields have fallen sharply, especially at the short end of the yield curve—increasing the inversion in the yield curve. An inverted yield curve portends a more aggressive economic slowdown, reflected in the fall in oil and gas prices.

Canada’s yield curve moved almost as much as in the U.S. Good news on the inflation front affirmed the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause. Consumer price inflation fell last month from 5.9% to 5.2%. The Bank will likely pause again at its next meeting in April.

Canadian bank stocks fell quite a bit, mirroring global trends. Our banks are in no danger of failing. Like the 2008 Financial Crisis, Canadian banks have proven to be very soundly regulated.

Lower mortgage rates are great news for the coming Spring season. While it won’t measure up to the 2021 boom, a rebound in sales and new listings will be great for the industry.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – February 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 10 Feb

Image of Dr. Sheryl Cooper

Even bond traders and economists are stumped about what the next few years will bring. The repercussions of a global economy that stopped suddenly, shed millions of jobs and initially contracted 30% only to rebound in a flash on the back of free-money government programs are still being felt.

 

Predicting where the economy goes from here risks taking comfort in spurious accuracy. We’ve never experienced a similar set of circumstances. With hindsight, we now see that policymakers have made severe errors—taking interest rates to unprecedented lows and flooding the system with massive fiscal stimulus has precipitated global inflation; home prices in Canada surged 50% in the three years following the pandemic; variable-rate mortgages were much cheaper than fixed-rate loans as the central bank cut overnight rates to 25 basis points.

 

The volume of mortgage originations surged, with a record proportion, in VRMs. Now many borrowers have hit their trigger points. The banks allow the amortization of rising interest payments owed, easing the near-term pressure on borrowers. Those with adjustable-rate loans have seen their monthly payments rise seven consecutive times, with likely another rate hike next week. This, in addition to inflation, has reduced household purchasing power. Many are hoping that interest rates fall to pre-COVID levels soon.

 

Initially, the central banks argued that inflation was transitory. Many are betting that the old forces that worked to keep inflation under control for years would reassert themselves. The federal banking regulator is now proposing additional restrictions on mortgage lending to highly indebted households.

 

We hope for the best but must prepare for a slow return to 2% inflation. Home prices have fallen but are still up more than 35% from pre-pandemic levels. Labour markets are still robust, but a slowdown is inevitable. This will be a transition year with little likelihood of interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada will pause soon to see if the lagged effects of higher rates further reduce inflation. Few believe the 2% target will be hit this year or next. The benchmark policy rate, now at 4.25% will not return to its pre-COVID level of 1.75%.

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