Economic News 6 Oct
 Dr. Sherry Cooper shares economic insights on Canada’s trade diversification, global partnerships, and economic outlook. |
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Buying, renewing or refinancing? Let’s explore mortgage options that fit your goals and financial situation.
Jag Dhamrait
Mortgage Agent Level 2
Phone: 647-883-7790
Email: jag@jagdhamrait.com
Economic News 10 Aug
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Buying, renewing or refinancing? Let’s explore mortgage options that fit your goals and financial situation.
Jag Dhamrait
Mortgage Agent Level 2
Phone: 647-883-7790
Email: jag@jagdhamrait.com
Economic News 7 Jul
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Buying, renewing or refinancing? Let’s explore mortgage options that fit your goals and financial situation.
Jag Dhamrait
Mortgage Agent Level 2
Phone: 647-883-7790
Email: jag@jagdhamrait.com
Economic News 3 Jun
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Economic News 10 Mar
Last month, the US Supreme Court issued a verdict on the tariff lawsuit. The ruling invalidates a large portion of the tariffs that Trump implemented in 2025.However, there are other ways that he can introduce import taxes. Here’s a chart showing some of the other means these tariffs could be put back on the table:
Source: Congressional Research Service, Bloomberg
Realistically, most affected tariffs will likely be reinstated by other means – and a temporary blanket 10% tariff already has. Trump has already ordered a raft of trade investigations that should allow him to enact more permanent tariffs, too.
While this could be good news for Canada, in the immediate future, it only increases uncertainty, further dampening consumer and business confidence and increasing the likelihood that spending decisions, whether for housing or business fixed investment, will be postponed.
Economic News 3 Feb
Dr. Sherry Cooper shares economic insights on Canada’s trade diversification, global partnerships, and economic outlook.
Amid significant shifts in global trade dynamics, Canada is redefining its position on the world stage. While the United States continues to make headlines with its assertive trade policies, other nations—Canada included—are forging ahead, adapting and expanding their international relationships.
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing marked the first Canadian prime ministerial trip to China since 2017, culminating in a landmark trade agreement. Canada lowered its tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, while China reciprocated by reducing tariffs on Canadian canola seed. Carney emphasized the importance of renewing and strengthening the Canada-China partnership, asserting that these efforts signal a move toward a new global order, with Canadian exporters increasingly seeking opportunities beyond the US market.
Impact on Economic Sectors
The prevailing uncertainty surrounding trade—driven by tariffs and shifting alliances—has contributed to a decline in housing market activity, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. In contrast, Quebec’s housing market remains more robust, although tariffs on aluminum and lumber have dampened broader economic activity in the province and across Atlantic Canada.
Despite widespread concern about these developments, Canada’s outlook for broadening trading partnerships is stronger than many anticipate. The country possesses substantial competitive advantages that position it well to meet international demand over the next decade.
Canada’s strengths lie in its rich natural resources, including oil and gas, uranium, critical minerals, food and agriproducts, fresh water, and Arctic access. These endowments provide a solid foundation for trade diversification.
Historically, 75% of Canadian exports have gone to the US, with agreements like CUSMA offering tariff protections for many Canadian goods. However, recent developments and strategic initiatives are opening new opportunities, especially in the energy and agri-food sectors, where Canada’s geography, resource reserves, and trade agreements align with growing demand from Europe and Asia.
Cross-Cutting Advantages
Canada is a leading global supplier of scarce commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, potash, canola, and other agri-food products. Its status as the world’s largest producer of potash is crucial to the US fertilizer supply, and there is significant potential to expand exports to major importers like Brazil, India, and China.
Canada benefits from a robust network of trade agreements, including CETA with the EU and CPTPP with Asia-Pacific economies. These agreements lower barriers for exports to Europe and Asia, offering advantages over non-preferential competitors. The country’s trade strategy now aims for a 50% increase in overseas (non-US) exports, a goal already being met ahead of schedule in some sectors.
Canada’s reputation as a politically stable, rules-based, and relatively low-carbon supplier is increasingly valued by global buyers prioritizing security of supply, especially in energy and food. This reputational premium is particularly important for European and Indo-Pacific customers seeking to mitigate risks posed by Russia and certain Middle Eastern suppliers.
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) and LNG Canada projects have significantly increased Canada’s pipeline and liquefaction capacity, providing direct access to Pacific markets. Since 2017, TMX has enabled a 130% rise in energy exports to overseas destinations, with LNG shipments reaching Japan, South Korea, China, and Malaysia. Chinese purchases of Canadian oil have reached all-time highs.
For North Asian markets, Canadian Pacific Coast LNG shipments are much faster than those from the US Gulf Coast, cutting approximately 20 days off voyages to South Korea. This geographic advantage, combined with Canada’s vast gas reserves and political stability, makes it a structurally competitive supplier to Asian gas markets.
Following the Ukraine conflict, Europe and Asia have strong incentives to diversify their energy sources away from Russia. Canada’s new export infrastructure directly supports this demand, with the global LNG market expected to remain tight through the mid-2020s, offering a window for new Canadian supply to secure long-term contracts.
Canada’s primary advantages are in upstream metals and minerals, such as iron ore and critical minerals, rather than in finished steel and automotive products. Metal and non-metallic mineral exports have grown rapidly—up about 74% since 2017—driven by gold and other metals.
For steel, aluminum, and auto parts, Canada’s ability to market low-carbon content and secure supply is a key differentiator, especially in jurisdictions tightening carbon and supply-chain regulations. While Canada’s participation in multiple free trade agreements provides tariff preferences in Europe and Asia, the integration and scale of the North American auto platform continue to present challenges for diversification in finished goods.
Canada plays a central role in global canola and potash markets and faces strong demand from large agricultural economies outside the US. The country supplies roughly 85–90% of US potash imports but is positioned to pivot toward growing markets such as Brazil, India, and China if US trade becomes less attractive.
China is a major buyer of Canadian raw canola seed and has greater processing capacity than other markets. Canada’s access to Asian and European trade channels further supports diversification. According to Farm Credit Canada, approximately $12 billion CAD in food and beverage exports could be redirected from the US to other markets or to domestic buyers, highlighting significant potential for reallocation.
Canada’s surplus potash supply helps keep domestic fertilizer costs low, allowing grain and oilseed exports to remain competitively priced in third markets. Combined with high standards for food safety and sustainability, Canada presents a compelling value proposition in premium and bulk agri-food markets.
In the near term, “water exports” are primarily realized through hydroelectric power from resource-rich provinces, rather than bulk water shipments. These hydro resources support green power exports, particularly to the northeastern US, and may contribute to future cross-border electricity grids.
As climate risks grow, Canada’s abundance of water and arable land creates long-term advantages in producing water-intensive goods such as grains, oilseeds, forestry products, and certain metals—positioning the country to supply water-stressed regions globally.
Canada’s federal strategy now explicitly positions trade diversification as central to risk management and economic resilience. Dedicated tools and financing, including Export Development Canada and trade commissioner services, are helping exporters access non-US markets. Combined with private-sector investments in logistics and port capacity, these efforts continue to reduce the costs and barriers associated with reorienting exports.
Canada’s structural advantages enable a gradual reduction in marginal dependence on the US, particularly in energy, agri-food, and some metals and advanced manufacturing sectors. However, full substitution in autos and certain processed goods remains unrealistic and inefficient due to the deep integration of the North American market. Overall, Canada’s expanding network of trading partners and robust resource base position it well for a resilient economic future.
As these successes mount, Canadian consumer and business confidence will rise, re-igniting pent-up demand in housing. As we move through this transition year, optimism will mount, and reduced housing prices, combined with lower mortgage rates, will return housing activity to more normal levels in the hardest-hit provinces of Ontario and British Columbia.
Economic News 5 Dec
As we move into year-end, we have every reason to believe that the economy has slowed and inflation, while still above target, has dropped significantly. But slower inflation does not mean falling prices in most markets. Yes, gasoline prices are down, and food inflation has slowed, but the purchasing power of households has not improved.
Consumer confidence is down as many households fear their mortgage renewals, where rising monthly payments will dig even deeper into their discretionary income.
Mortgage arrears are still at historical lows, but credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising. Housing markets have slowed considerably, even as lenders cut their fixed mortgage loan rates. Declines in variable-rate loans generally await an easing in monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, which is still likely at least six months away.
The good news is that interest rates have likely peaked. So far, the economy is on a glide path for a ‘softish’ landing. I doubt we will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, if we do, the central bank will respond sooner with rate cuts.
The fiscal authorities’ hands are tied. Many accuse Ottawa of increasing budgetary red ink too quickly over the past eight years, especially during the pandemic. Now that market-determined interest rates have risen sharply, the debt financing costs are spiking. The Liberals’ popularity is waning, and while business is calling for investment tax credits and everyone wants more affordable housing, the feds can only marginally affect these issues, given budgetary and political constraints.
The latest gimmick is to reduce short-term rentals by restricting Airbnb properties in some ways, but that will again have a meagre impact. Encouraging construction with GST elimination and cheaper credit is helpful. Still, even if they do lead to 30,000 new rental properties, that’s a drop in the bucket when planned permanent immigration is slated for 500,000 people per year.
The real rebound in economic activity is coming when the BoC signals it will cut the overnight policy rate. In the meantime, it is now a buyers’ market in many localities as home prices decline. The spring housing market could show a meaningful pickup in anticipation of lower rates and more housing supply. Motivated sellers will be out there, and buyers can pre-approve and take their time finding the right fit. The multiple-bidding wars are over. The housing market will lead the economy upward next year.
Economic News 1 Nov
The Canadian economy is showing continued signs of slowing as inflation decelerates. This opens the door for a continued pause in rate hikes. Indeed, with any luck, the Bank might have finished its tightening cycle.
One more rate hike is possible, especially if continued Middle East tensions lead to a sustained oil price increase, but the odds are against it.
This does not suggest, however, that interest rates will decline anytime soon. Headline inflation in September was posted at a 3.8% year-over-year pace, well above the Bank’s 2% target. Wage inflation remains at roughly 5%, and inflation expectations remain high.
However, the economy is slowing, and excess demand in labour markets is waning. Third-quarter economic growth is likely to be less than 0.5%, and leading economic indicators are pointing to a further slowdown in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2024.
Canadian consumers, weighed down by record debt loads and high prices, are tightening their purse strings. Savings rates have fallen, and retail sales per capita have slowed markedly. Sales were down in six subsectors: car dealers, furniture, electronics, and appliance retailers.
Canadians are quickly rolling back their purchases of goods as more households face mortgage payment renewals. The Bank of Canada consumer survey suggested that families expect more adverse effects ahead as an increasing volume of mortgages come due for renewal or refinancing.
Businesses are also tightening their belts as the recent Bank of Canada Business Outlook survey showed considerable weakness. The Bank is counting on softening demand to translate into a slower inflation rate in the coming months.
I expect the central bank to cut interest rates in mid-2024, gradually taking the overnight policy rate down. In the meantime, housing markets will continue seeing a surge in new listings and more favourable buying opportunities.
Economic News 1 Oct
As we round the corner into October, now is a great time to touch base about what to expect in the marketplace this Fall!
As you may have heard, The Bank of Canada opted to maintain its policy rate at 5% as of September. The recent rate hikes over the spring and summer have slowed the housing and mortgage markets as potential buyers were unsurprisingly spooked by the rise in mortgage rates.
More recently, fixed-rate loans have become more expensive because of the rise in longer-term interest rates. As a result, housing affordability became a bigger hurdle and led to a slight decrease in home prices by 6% in major markets over the summer.
With The Bank of Canada currently maintaining the 5% policy rate, many hope this will be the peak in overnight rate changes. If so, homeowners and potential buyers will be granted some breathing room. We will find out more with their upcoming announcement on October 25th.
As we turn the corner into Fall and start looking ahead to the coming year, analysts are forecasting stronger housing markets. The expectation is that The Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates by mid-year, allowing potential buyers to better navigate their affordability.
As the housing supply shortage continues, new listings are likely to rise and provide much-needed new inventory. As we move into 2024 and start to see interest rates decrease, motivated sellers will move off the sidelines and housing demand is expected to be resilient.
For anyone who is thinking about purchasing this season, it is important to get pre-approved to guarantee your interest rate for 90-120 days while you shop the market. This way, you will avoid being impacted by potential rate changes and can properly estimate your budget for mortgage costs. Plus, pre-approval will indicate to the seller that you will not have issues obtaining financing (assuming nothing changes between now and the purchase with your job, savings, etc.), which is key during the current economic landscape.
To help you make the best decision possible, download the My Mortgage Toolbox app to determine what you can afford, and what your mortgage would look like at various interest rate levels.
I am also here to provide expert, unbiased advice to anyone with concerns, questions or wanting to get started on their pre-approval today!
Economic News 1 Sep
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