Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – August 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 Aug

The Bank of Canada remains staunch in its battle against inflation, utilizing its primary weapon—the overnight policy rate—which has escalated from 25 basis points to 500 bps since March 2022.

This historically low overnight rate was a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing measures to cushion the economic impact of the lockdowns. These initiatives included reducing the policy rate from 1.75% to 0.25%, postponing mortgage payments, providing financial support to businesses for workforce maintenance, and compensating individuals for home quarantine. These measures, amongst others, reignited the economy upon the widespread availability of the vaccine.

The Canadian economy bounced back robustly once commercial activities resumed. Employment rates rocketed, and unemployment plummeted to all-time lows. However, the recovery faced a setback when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2021, which caused supply constraints, and substantially increased energy and food. Despite the soaring inflation, central banks were initially hesitant to take action.

In hindsight, we now know the necessity for initiating interest rate hikes by mid-2021. Instead, this action was postponed until March 2022.Furthermore, the Bank of Canada and other significant central banks inundated the financial system with surplus liquidity by purchasing government bonds. This quantitative easing tactic made capital not only more affordable but also readily available, sparking an unprecedented boom in the housing market.

Many exploited the record-low rates of 2020 and 2021 by opting for variable-rate loans due to their lower costs. At its zenith, variable-rate mortgages (VRMs) accounted for 57% of all loan originations. These loans are due for renewal in 2025 and 2026. However, most of these loans have reached their trigger points and are negatively amortizing, barring substantial lump-sum payments by borrowers.

For those who chose adjustable-rate loans, monthly payments increased with every Bank of Canada rate hike. Delinquency rates, for the time being, remain impressively low within the prime space, though they are beginning to rise among alternative lenders.

After reaching a zenith of 8.1% in June 2022, inflation has slowed to 2.8% in June of this year. Regardless, the Bank of Canada continued its trend of interest rate hikes following a brief hiatus in its last two meetings, with speculation of another hike in September. The Bank has provided a buffer period for itself by projecting a return to the 2% target inflation rate by mid-2025—a considerably more extended period than initially anticipated.

The recent rate hikes and moderated expectations appear prudent considering the Bank’s preference for mitigating inflation over preventing a recession. It is improbable that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates this year.

Although the policy rate is projected to decrease in the first half of 2024, it is not expected to return to the pre-COVID level of 1.75%. Negative real interest rates (the actual market rate minus the 2% inflation rate) are unlikely to occur, barring a global economic meltdown.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – July 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 4 Jul

 

The biggest surprise recently has been the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. While the April inflation headline did tick up, and Q1 GDP data came in at a stronger-than-expected 3.2%, the April labour force data showed some easing in the jobs market.

The ratio of unemployment-to-job vacancies is now rising. Rather than signalling a rate hike before the announcement on June 7, the Bank chose to pre-empt any additional economic indicators.

Ironically, the May jobs data, released later that week, showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.2%, the first increase since before rate hikes began in March of last year. The Bank of Canada was particularly disturbed by the resurgence in home sales and prices in April. They argued that interest rates needed to be higher if the most interest-sensitive of all spending was rising.

That move by the central bank spooked the housing market, causing many to question their decisions to purchase. Expectations of any declines in the overnight policy rate this year vanished, and markets now expect at least one more hike this year.

Consumer spending does remain robust, as evidenced by the solid retail sales data for April. Moreover, many households have turned to credit cards to finance their spending—bolstered by inflation—and delinquency rates have risen.

Wage inflation remains strong, core inflation ticked up in April, and food inflation, though down from double-digit levels, is still far higher than a 2% inflation target would warrant.

The bank watchdog, OSFI, warned that the rising level of remaining amortizations of variable rate mortgages is a warning sign of continued risk for households that went into VRMs in droves when interest rates plunged in the first two years of the pandemic. New originations over that period were at rock-bottom rates, and variable mortgage rates were far below fixed. The situation has reversed today, and 3-to-4-year fixed mortgages dominate new mortgage originations.

Many VRM borrowers have hit their trigger points, where their monthly payments are no longer covering their interest costs—hence the negative amortizations of these loans at some Big Six Banks. OSFI is warning banks to address this immediately as renewals will mean at least a 30% rise in monthly payments if mortgage terms revert to 25- or even 30 years. OSFI has also increased the mandatory level of Tier One common equity relative to risk-weighted assets by 50 basis points. Currently, all the large Canadian banks fulfill this requirement.

Another significant milestone last month dramatically impacted the Canadian housing market. International migration to Canada spiked in 2022, taking population growth to 2.7%, the highest in the developed world and the strongest since the top of the Baby Boom in 1957. As of mid-June, Statistics Canada announced that the population is 40 million. The housing shortage is mounting, and housing starts are falling. Despite higher interest rates, demand for housing for rent or purchase has never been more robust.

While the federal government announced last year that they want to double housing construction to improve affordability over the next decade, Trudeau’s goal appears unachievable. This will continue to put upward pressure on rents and home prices over the longer term.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – June 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 Jun

Image of Dr. Sherry Cooper from Dominion Lending Centres
 

Once again, the Canadian economy is running hotter than expected by the Bank of Canada. The economy continues to exhibit excess demand conditions. In particular, labour markets are very tight, the unemployment rate is near a record low, and wages are rising by more than 5%.

Consumer spending is still strong, and the housing market has bounced considerably. Home sales were up 11% in April, prices are rising again in many regions, especially the GTA and GVA, and new listings are so slim that it is now a sellers’ market. This should bring some potential sellers off the sidelines in May and June. However, demand is likely to remain well more than supply, given the influx of many immigrants and the constraints on the construction of new housing.

The April inflation data was stronger than expected at 4.4%, indicating that the mid-year forecast of 3% might well be overly optimistic. Some are already calling for a rate hike by the central bank this month or in July. While that might be premature, the Bank will consider at least one more increase in the overnight policy rate if the May data is robust.

This is at a time when homeowners are already feeling the pinch of the rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. Homeowners who bought in 2020 and 2022 and financed with variable-rate mortgages are already under pressure. And those with fixed-rate mortgages will refinance at substantially higher interest rates.

Already, many households have monthly payments that do not cover the interest on their loans, let alone the principal. Many lenders are allowing extended amortization. CMHC announced they would not extend the amortization of newly insured mortgages beyond 25 years.

One thing is sure. Do not expect monetary policy easing any time this year.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – May 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 May

Image of Dr. Sherry Cooper
 

It has been just over a year since the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates. While the economy has remained surprisingly resilient, the housing market has weakened sharply.

The Bank has remained on the sidelines for the past two Governing Council announcement dates, and home sales have edged upward in very tight markets.

There is a rapidly growing housing shortage. As population growth remains strong and immigration targets rise, new home construction cannot keep up with demand. Demand for rental properties is surging, and rents have risen sharply for new tenants.

Another factor that could slow the economy this year is the rise in monthly housing payments. For those with adjustable-rate mortgages, monthly payments have already risen sharply. Most of those with variable-rate loans with a fixed monthly cost has hit their trigger point, and the amount no longer covers any of the principle. Most banks have allowed negative amortization but will require borrowers to return to original 20-year amortizations upon renewal. This could be quite a shock to consumers over the next few years.

The Office for the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is very concerned about the risk associated with these loans. We will be hearing soon from OSFI regarding more restrictions on mortgage lending.

The great news is that inflation is falling quickly, down to only 4.3% in March. The central bank expects inflation to fall to about 3% by the end of this year. So, barring unforeseen inflation pressures, the Bank could pause for the rest of this year. Rate cuts, however, are unlikely until 2024.

The Canadian economy will likely slow as the year progresses. The most likely scenario is a mild recession later this year. As we move into 2024, interest rates will slowly decrease to about 2.5% for the overnight policy rate. The economy will rebound, and the Bank of Canada expects to hit its 2% target on inflation. That might be hard to achieve, given rapidly rising wages and continued inflation expectations.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – April 2023

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 4 Apr

In March, the global economy was focused on systemic risk in the banking sector.

Following three bank failures in the U.S., markets were roiled again by the forced sale of Credit Suisse to UBS.
Interest rates have plummeted as demand for the haven of government bonds has increased sharply. Consequently, five-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen roughly 30 basis points as the Fed pondered its next move.

Inevitably, failed banks and fears of additional losses have led many financial institutions to tighten their provision of credit. Although interest rates have fallen worldwide, more cautious lending will slow economic activity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, ground zero for bank failures.

For that reason, many expected the Fed to pause to assess the situation further. The Fed raised its overnight policy rate 25 bps to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, now above the overnight rate in Canada.

Just over two weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress that inflation pressures warranted higher-than-expected interest rates. With the bank failures, the Fed suggests that the target level might be only one or two moves away. However, even with that, the U.S. central bank reasserted that interest rates determined by the Fed will not be reduced until next year.

Market-determined yields have fallen sharply, especially at the short end of the yield curve—increasing the inversion in the yield curve. An inverted yield curve portends a more aggressive economic slowdown, reflected in the fall in oil and gas prices.

Canada’s yield curve moved almost as much as in the U.S. Good news on the inflation front affirmed the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause. Consumer price inflation fell last month from 5.9% to 5.2%. The Bank will likely pause again at its next meeting in April.

Canadian bank stocks fell quite a bit, mirroring global trends. Our banks are in no danger of failing. Like the 2008 Financial Crisis, Canadian banks have proven to be very soundly regulated.

Lower mortgage rates are great news for the coming Spring season. While it won’t measure up to the 2021 boom, a rebound in sales and new listings will be great for the industry.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – February 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 10 Feb

Image of Dr. Sheryl Cooper

Even bond traders and economists are stumped about what the next few years will bring. The repercussions of a global economy that stopped suddenly, shed millions of jobs and initially contracted 30% only to rebound in a flash on the back of free-money government programs are still being felt.

 

Predicting where the economy goes from here risks taking comfort in spurious accuracy. We’ve never experienced a similar set of circumstances. With hindsight, we now see that policymakers have made severe errors—taking interest rates to unprecedented lows and flooding the system with massive fiscal stimulus has precipitated global inflation; home prices in Canada surged 50% in the three years following the pandemic; variable-rate mortgages were much cheaper than fixed-rate loans as the central bank cut overnight rates to 25 basis points.

 

The volume of mortgage originations surged, with a record proportion, in VRMs. Now many borrowers have hit their trigger points. The banks allow the amortization of rising interest payments owed, easing the near-term pressure on borrowers. Those with adjustable-rate loans have seen their monthly payments rise seven consecutive times, with likely another rate hike next week. This, in addition to inflation, has reduced household purchasing power. Many are hoping that interest rates fall to pre-COVID levels soon.

 

Initially, the central banks argued that inflation was transitory. Many are betting that the old forces that worked to keep inflation under control for years would reassert themselves. The federal banking regulator is now proposing additional restrictions on mortgage lending to highly indebted households.

 

We hope for the best but must prepare for a slow return to 2% inflation. Home prices have fallen but are still up more than 35% from pre-pandemic levels. Labour markets are still robust, but a slowdown is inevitable. This will be a transition year with little likelihood of interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada will pause soon to see if the lagged effects of higher rates further reduce inflation. Few believe the 2% target will be hit this year or next. The benchmark policy rate, now at 4.25% will not return to its pre-COVID level of 1.75%.

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