Amortization Options

Your mortgage amortization period is the number of years it will take you to pay off your mortgage. Depending on your choice of amortization period, it will affect how quickly you become mortgage-free as well as how much interest you pay over the lifetime of your mortgage (a longer lifetime equals more interest, whereas a shorter lifetime equals less interest but also bigger payments).

Amortization BenchmarksLet’s start by looking at the mortgage industry benchmark amortization period. This is typically a 25-year period and is the standard that is used by the majority of lenders when it comes to discussing mortgage products. It is also typically the basis for standard mortgage calculators. While this is the standard, it is not the only option when it comes to your mortgage amortization. Mortgage amortizations can be as short as 5 years and as long as 35 years!Benefits of a Shorter AmortizationOpting for a shorter amortization period will result in paying less interest overall during the life of your mortgage. Choosing this amortization schedule means you will also become mortgage-free faster and have access to your home equity sooner! However, if you choose to pay off your mortgage over a shorter time frame, you will have higher payments per month. If your income is irregular, you are at the maximum end of your monthly budget or this is your first home, you may not benefit from a shorter amortization and having more cash flow tied up in your monthly mortgage payments.Benefits of a Longer AmortizationWhen it comes to choosing a longer amortization period, there are still advantages. The first is that you have smaller monthly mortgage payments, which can make home ownership less daunting for first-time buyers as well as free up additional monthly cash flow for other bills or endeavors. A longer amortization also has its advantages when it comes to buying a home as choosing a longer amortization period can often get you into your dream home sooner, due to utilizing standard mortgage payments versus accelerated. In some cases, with your payments happening over a larger period, you may also qualify for a slightly higher value mortgage than a shorter amortization depending on your situation.Let’s Chat!I am happy to help with the decision for the amortization that best suits your unique requirements and ensures you have adequate cash flow. However, it is important to mention that you are not stuck with the amortization schedule you choose at the time you get your mortgage. You can shorten or lengthen your amortization, as well as consider making extra payments on your mortgage (if you set up pre-payment options), at a later date.Ideally, you are re-evaluating your mortgage at renewal time (every 3, 5, or 10 years depending on your mortgage product). During renewal is a great time to review your amortization and payment schedules or make changes if they are no longer working for you.If you have any questions or are looking to get started on purchasing a home, don’t hesitate to reach out to me today!

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – February 2024

Economic News 6 Feb

In January, the Canadian bond market took quite a beating as interest rates rose roughly 30 basis points from their recent lows. The December housing data revealed a surge in sales, while inflation data showed just how difficult it may be to return to the 2% inflation target.

Core inflation remains above 3.5% despite flat economic activity in the fourth quarter.

While overall growth declined by 1.1% in Q3, we expect the final quarter of 2023 and Q1 of this year to post roughly zero growth. Nevertheless, labour markets remain relatively strong, and wage rates rise well above 5% year-over-year.

Since mid-year, the Bank of Canada has focused on the supply/demand balance, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. Last week’s Business Outlook Survey showed little to no improvement in those metrics, with corporate pricing behaviour somewhat encouraging on the path to normalization but still not there.

There is a way to go before we see sub-3% inflation sustainably. Until then, the bank will hold the overnight policy rate at 5%. The Bank of Canada made its first announcement of the year on January 24th, resulting in no change in the overnight rate for the fourth consecutive meeting.

While markets are anxiously looking forward to a series of interest rate cuts, it is too early for the Bank of Canada to take a more dovish tone. This week, they will issue their full economic forecast in the Monetary Policy Report.

Inflation remains critical to the outlook. The latest CPI report was not encouraging. Progress has been made in bringing inflation down, but plenty of work remains to get back to 2%. Rate cuts are coming this year, but the Bank of Canada will patiently await a further drop in inflation and inflation expectations. In the meantime, a continued rebound in housing markets will anticipate the future easing in mortgage rates.

Pantone Colour of the Year

Home Tips 14 Jan

As we enter the New Year, it’s always fun to reflect on the previous twelve months and take a look at what is trending as we move forward.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Pantone of the Year, it is more than just a colour to paint your walls.

Since 2000, the Pantone Colour Institute has been indicating a colour of the year and, for many, this is seen as a representation of the current moment in time helping us to reflect on the culture and state of the world. Think of it like a snapshot in time!

For 2024, the Pantone color of the year is “Peach Fuzz”; which is notably a warm and cozy hue to feed and nourish the soul.

During this post-pandemic period of turmoil around the economy, mortgage industry, and housing market, many of us are currently in need of more nurturing and comfort. This colour signifies the importance of caring and community even more as we enter 2024.

As the calendar turns over, take inspiration from Pantone to make the New Year one of comfort, healing and peace for yourself and those around you. With interest rates forecasted to drop towards the later half of 2024, housing and job markets set to stabilize and inflation slowly reducing to normal, we have some stability to look forward to.

To ensure you can make 2024 as comfortable as possible, don’t hesitate to reach out to me for mortgage advice. Managing your finances can be a great way to reduce stress and leave time for more important things! Renewals are on the rise, and this can be a great opportunity for you to rebalance your mortgage contract, review your interest rate and terms, and update your payment schedule to make the most of your monthly cashflow.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – January 2024

Economic News 3 Jan

With the release of the November inflation data, some were disappointed that inflation remained at 3.4% year-over-year—the same as in October.

However, without the base effects of year-ago energy price declines, inflation would have been less than 3%.

December’s inflation data will be similarly skewed higher. Still, there is ample reason to suggest that interest rates have peaked, and the Bank of Canada will begin to ease monetary policy next year.

The economy has slowed significantly, and the unemployment rate is rising. Consumer spending will continue to slow as monthly mortgage payments rise at renewal. Excess demand is now gone, and housing markets have slowed considerably. Although the road to 2% inflation will be bumpy, the central bank now believes that the overnight policy rate is high enough to return inflation to its target.

Core inflation has been sticky, and wages continue to rise, playing catch-up to past inflation, but events are trending in the right direction. While not even the Governing Council knows when they will begin to cut interest rates or how quickly the process will proceed, policymakers and regulators are worried about the dampening effects of significant increases in monthly mortgage payments for the 60% of loans that will be renewed or refinanced in the next three years.

Just as overstaying their aggressive easing of monetary policy caused inflation, on the flip side, keeping monetary policy this tight for too long could damage the livelihoods of many Canadians, triggering potential financial instability and significant layoffs. These concerns have precipitated a dramatic decline in market-driven interest rates worldwide.

There are many reasons to believe the Bank of Canada will begin to ease monetary policy in 2024. Bond and money markets are building in this expectation.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – December 2023

Economic News 5 Dec

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – December 2023

As we move into year-end, we have every reason to believe that the economy has slowed and inflation, while still above target, has dropped significantly. But slower inflation does not mean falling prices in most markets. Yes, gasoline prices are down, and food inflation has slowed, but the purchasing power of households has not improved.

Consumer confidence is down as many households fear their mortgage renewals, where rising monthly payments will dig even deeper into their discretionary income.

Mortgage arrears are still at historical lows, but credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising. Housing markets have slowed considerably, even as lenders cut their fixed mortgage loan rates. Declines in variable-rate loans generally await an easing in monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, which is still likely at least six months away.

The good news is that interest rates have likely peaked. So far, the economy is on a glide path for a ‘softish’ landing. I doubt we will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, if we do, the central bank will respond sooner with rate cuts.

The fiscal authorities’ hands are tied. Many accuse Ottawa of increasing budgetary red ink too quickly over the past eight years, especially during the pandemic. Now that market-determined interest rates have risen sharply, the debt financing costs are spiking. The Liberals’ popularity is waning, and while business is calling for investment tax credits and everyone wants more affordable housing, the feds can only marginally affect these issues, given budgetary and political constraints.

The latest gimmick is to reduce short-term rentals by restricting Airbnb properties in some ways, but that will again have a meagre impact. Encouraging construction with GST elimination and cheaper credit is helpful. Still, even if they do lead to 30,000 new rental properties, that’s a drop in the bucket when planned permanent immigration is slated for 500,000 people per year.

The real rebound in economic activity is coming when the BoC signals it will cut the overnight policy rate. In the meantime, it is now a buyers’ market in many localities as home prices decline. The spring housing market could show a meaningful pickup in anticipation of lower rates and more housing supply. Motivated sellers will be out there, and buyers can pre-approve and take their time finding the right fit. The multiple-bidding wars are over. The housing market will lead the economy upward next year.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – November 2023

Economic News 1 Nov

The Canadian economy is showing continued signs of slowing as inflation decelerates. This opens the door for a continued pause in rate hikes. Indeed, with any luck, the Bank might have finished its tightening cycle.

One more rate hike is possible, especially if continued Middle East tensions lead to a sustained oil price increase, but the odds are against it.

This does not suggest, however, that interest rates will decline anytime soon. Headline inflation in September was posted at a 3.8% year-over-year pace, well above the Bank’s 2% target. Wage inflation remains at roughly 5%, and inflation expectations remain high.

However, the economy is slowing, and excess demand in labour markets is waning. Third-quarter economic growth is likely to be less than 0.5%, and leading economic indicators are pointing to a further slowdown in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2024.

Canadian consumers, weighed down by record debt loads and high prices, are tightening their purse strings. Savings rates have fallen, and retail sales per capita have slowed markedly. Sales were down in six subsectors: car dealers, furniture, electronics, and appliance retailers.

Canadians are quickly rolling back their purchases of goods as more households face mortgage payment renewals. The Bank of Canada consumer survey suggested that families expect more adverse effects ahead as an increasing volume of mortgages come due for renewal or refinancing.

Businesses are also tightening their belts as the recent Bank of Canada Business Outlook survey showed considerable weakness. The Bank is counting on softening demand to translate into a slower inflation rate in the coming months.

I expect the central bank to cut interest rates in mid-2024, gradually taking the overnight policy rate down. In the meantime, housing markets will continue seeing a surge in new listings and more favourable buying opportunities.

Fall Market Forecast

Economic News 1 Oct

As we round the corner into October, now is a great time to touch base about what to expect in the marketplace this Fall!

As you may have heard, The Bank of Canada opted to maintain its policy rate at 5% as of September. The recent rate hikes over the spring and summer have slowed the housing and mortgage markets as potential buyers were unsurprisingly spooked by the rise in mortgage rates.

More recently, fixed-rate loans have become more expensive because of the rise in longer-term interest rates. As a result, housing affordability became a bigger hurdle and led to a slight decrease in home prices by 6% in major markets over the summer.

With The Bank of Canada currently maintaining the 5% policy rate, many hope this will be the peak in overnight rate changes. If so, homeowners and potential buyers will be granted some breathing room. We will find out more with their upcoming announcement on October 25th.

As we turn the corner into Fall and start looking ahead to the coming year, analysts are forecasting stronger housing markets. The expectation is that The Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates by mid-year, allowing potential buyers to better navigate their affordability.

As the housing supply shortage continues, new listings are likely to rise and provide much-needed new inventory. As we move into 2024 and start to see interest rates decrease, motivated sellers will move off the sidelines and housing demand is expected to be resilient.

For anyone who is thinking about purchasing this season, it is important to get pre-approved to guarantee your interest rate for 90-120 days while you shop the market. This way, you will avoid being impacted by potential rate changes and can properly estimate your budget for mortgage costs. Plus, pre-approval will indicate to the seller that you will not have issues obtaining financing (assuming nothing changes between now and the purchase with your job, savings, etc.), which is key during the current economic landscape.

To help you make the best decision possible, download the My Mortgage Toolbox app to determine what you can afford, and what your mortgage would look like at various interest rate levels.

I am also here to provide expert, unbiased advice to anyone with concerns, questions or wanting to get started on their pre-approval today!

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – September 2023

Economic News 1 Sep

The Bank of Canada has a single mandate—to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target. This means that the Bank will raise interest rates if inflation is too high and lower interest rates if inflation is too low.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, in contrast, has a dual mandate—to maximize employment given a 2% target for inflation.

That is a subtle but meaningful difference.

July inflation data showed that the headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3%, up from 2.8% in June. One challenge in understanding year-over-year inflation data is base effects. Base effects occur when the current year’s inflation is compared to the previous year’s inflation, called the base year. If the base year has unusually high inflation, then the current year’s inflation will appear lower than it is.

For example, inflation in Canada was very high in June 2022. This means that inflation in June 2023 appeared to be lower than it is, even if there is no change in the underlying level of inflation.

Gasoline prices peaked in June 2022 and trended downward for most of the year. That makes y/y comparisons look worse starting last month. If you are only focusing on the annual change in inflation, you will be misled.

Looking at monthly changes in the headline inflation data can also be misleading because so many components of headline inflation are highly volatile. For example, monthly consumer prices in July rose 0.6% compared to only 0.1% in June. The y/y increase was smaller for core inflation measures. And if you exclude food, energy and mortgage rates, y/y inflation was quite moderate.

The main point here is that it’s complicated. I am more sanguine about last month’s inflation data than most Bay Street economists. The overall Canadian economy has slowed. Following the strong first quarter growth of 3.1%, Q2 GDP growth will likely come in at around a much more muted 1.2%. Job vacancies have fallen for a year, and the unemployment rate has risen to 5.5%–still low by historical standards but up from the record low this cycle of 4.9%.

The single major economic release ahead of the September 6 Bank of Canada policy decision is Q2 GDP, released on September 1. The BoC is expecting growth of 1.5%.

The impact on the economy of higher interest rates has a long lag. The full effects of the tightening will not be evident for a few more years. Given that most Canadian mortgage borrowers renew their mortgages every five years, the largest impact is yet to come. Nevertheless, higher interest rates have slowed the most interest-sensitive sectors.

Canadian new home prices edged down 0.1% in July, deepening the year-over-year decrease to 0.9%. In the same month, the yearly decline in the benchmark price of an existing home (as measured by the MLS HPI) eased to 1.5%. While prices for existing homes are still rising modestly, the momentum looks to have slowed as the market returns roughly to balance following the Bank’s latest two rate hikes.

Barring a massive upside surprise in Q2 GDP, the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.0%. Longer-term market rates, however, have been rising, boosting fixed-rate mortgage yields. This results from economic and political concerns in the U.S. There is a good chance that overnight rates in Canada have peaked. If the economy remains too strong, the Bank will keep the door open for further tightening as inflation exceeds the 2% target.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – August 2023

Economic News 1 Aug

The Bank of Canada remains staunch in its battle against inflation, utilizing its primary weapon—the overnight policy rate—which has escalated from 25 basis points to 500 bps since March 2022.

This historically low overnight rate was a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing measures to cushion the economic impact of the lockdowns. These initiatives included reducing the policy rate from 1.75% to 0.25%, postponing mortgage payments, providing financial support to businesses for workforce maintenance, and compensating individuals for home quarantine. These measures, amongst others, reignited the economy upon the widespread availability of the vaccine.

The Canadian economy bounced back robustly once commercial activities resumed. Employment rates rocketed, and unemployment plummeted to all-time lows. However, the recovery faced a setback when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2021, which caused supply constraints, and substantially increased energy and food. Despite the soaring inflation, central banks were initially hesitant to take action.

In hindsight, we now know the necessity for initiating interest rate hikes by mid-2021. Instead, this action was postponed until March 2022.Furthermore, the Bank of Canada and other significant central banks inundated the financial system with surplus liquidity by purchasing government bonds. This quantitative easing tactic made capital not only more affordable but also readily available, sparking an unprecedented boom in the housing market.

Many exploited the record-low rates of 2020 and 2021 by opting for variable-rate loans due to their lower costs. At its zenith, variable-rate mortgages (VRMs) accounted for 57% of all loan originations. These loans are due for renewal in 2025 and 2026. However, most of these loans have reached their trigger points and are negatively amortizing, barring substantial lump-sum payments by borrowers.

For those who chose adjustable-rate loans, monthly payments increased with every Bank of Canada rate hike. Delinquency rates, for the time being, remain impressively low within the prime space, though they are beginning to rise among alternative lenders.

After reaching a zenith of 8.1% in June 2022, inflation has slowed to 2.8% in June of this year. Regardless, the Bank of Canada continued its trend of interest rate hikes following a brief hiatus in its last two meetings, with speculation of another hike in September. The Bank has provided a buffer period for itself by projecting a return to the 2% target inflation rate by mid-2025—a considerably more extended period than initially anticipated.

The recent rate hikes and moderated expectations appear prudent considering the Bank’s preference for mitigating inflation over preventing a recession. It is improbable that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates this year.

Although the policy rate is projected to decrease in the first half of 2024, it is not expected to return to the pre-COVID level of 1.75%. Negative real interest rates (the actual market rate minus the 2% inflation rate) are unlikely to occur, barring a global economic meltdown.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – July 2023

Economic News 4 Jul

The biggest surprise recently has been the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. While the April inflation headline did tick up, and Q1 GDP data came in at a stronger-than-expected 3.2%, the April labour force data showed some easing in the jobs market.

The ratio of unemployment-to-job vacancies is now rising. Rather than signalling a rate hike before the announcement on June 7, the Bank chose to pre-empt any additional economic indicators.

Ironically, the May jobs data, released later that week, showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.2%, the first increase since before rate hikes began in March of last year. The Bank of Canada was particularly disturbed by the resurgence in home sales and prices in April. They argued that interest rates needed to be higher if the most interest-sensitive of all spending was rising.

That move by the central bank spooked the housing market, causing many to question their decisions to purchase. Expectations of any declines in the overnight policy rate this year vanished, and markets now expect at least one more hike this year.

Consumer spending does remain robust, as evidenced by the solid retail sales data for April. Moreover, many households have turned to credit cards to finance their spending—bolstered by inflation—and delinquency rates have risen.

Wage inflation remains strong, core inflation ticked up in April, and food inflation, though down from double-digit levels, is still far higher than a 2% inflation target would warrant.

The bank watchdog, OSFI, warned that the rising level of remaining amortizations of variable rate mortgages is a warning sign of continued risk for households that went into VRMs in droves when interest rates plunged in the first two years of the pandemic. New originations over that period were at rock-bottom rates, and variable mortgage rates were far below fixed. The situation has reversed today, and 3-to-4-year fixed mortgages dominate new mortgage originations.

Many VRM borrowers have hit their trigger points, where their monthly payments are no longer covering their interest costs—hence the negative amortizations of these loans at some Big Six Banks. OSFI is warning banks to address this immediately as renewals will mean at least a 30% rise in monthly payments if mortgage terms revert to 25- or even 30 years. OSFI has also increased the mandatory level of Tier One common equity relative to risk-weighted assets by 50 basis points. Currently, all the large Canadian banks fulfill this requirement.

Another significant milestone last month dramatically impacted the Canadian housing market. International migration to Canada spiked in 2022, taking population growth to 2.7%, the highest in the developed world and the strongest since the top of the Baby Boom in 1957. As of mid-June, Statistics Canada announced that the population is 40 million. The housing shortage is mounting, and housing starts are falling. Despite higher interest rates, demand for housing for rent or purchase has never been more robust.

While the federal government announced last year that they want to double housing construction to improve affordability over the next decade, Trudeau’s goal appears unachievable. This will continue to put upward pressure on rents and home prices over the longer term.

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