Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – August 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 Aug

The Bank of Canada remains staunch in its battle against inflation, utilizing its primary weapon—the overnight policy rate—which has escalated from 25 basis points to 500 bps since March 2022.

This historically low overnight rate was a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing measures to cushion the economic impact of the lockdowns. These initiatives included reducing the policy rate from 1.75% to 0.25%, postponing mortgage payments, providing financial support to businesses for workforce maintenance, and compensating individuals for home quarantine. These measures, amongst others, reignited the economy upon the widespread availability of the vaccine.

The Canadian economy bounced back robustly once commercial activities resumed. Employment rates rocketed, and unemployment plummeted to all-time lows. However, the recovery faced a setback when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2021, which caused supply constraints, and substantially increased energy and food. Despite the soaring inflation, central banks were initially hesitant to take action.

In hindsight, we now know the necessity for initiating interest rate hikes by mid-2021. Instead, this action was postponed until March 2022.Furthermore, the Bank of Canada and other significant central banks inundated the financial system with surplus liquidity by purchasing government bonds. This quantitative easing tactic made capital not only more affordable but also readily available, sparking an unprecedented boom in the housing market.

Many exploited the record-low rates of 2020 and 2021 by opting for variable-rate loans due to their lower costs. At its zenith, variable-rate mortgages (VRMs) accounted for 57% of all loan originations. These loans are due for renewal in 2025 and 2026. However, most of these loans have reached their trigger points and are negatively amortizing, barring substantial lump-sum payments by borrowers.

For those who chose adjustable-rate loans, monthly payments increased with every Bank of Canada rate hike. Delinquency rates, for the time being, remain impressively low within the prime space, though they are beginning to rise among alternative lenders.

After reaching a zenith of 8.1% in June 2022, inflation has slowed to 2.8% in June of this year. Regardless, the Bank of Canada continued its trend of interest rate hikes following a brief hiatus in its last two meetings, with speculation of another hike in September. The Bank has provided a buffer period for itself by projecting a return to the 2% target inflation rate by mid-2025—a considerably more extended period than initially anticipated.

The recent rate hikes and moderated expectations appear prudent considering the Bank’s preference for mitigating inflation over preventing a recession. It is improbable that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates this year.

Although the policy rate is projected to decrease in the first half of 2024, it is not expected to return to the pre-COVID level of 1.75%. Negative real interest rates (the actual market rate minus the 2% inflation rate) are unlikely to occur, barring a global economic meltdown.

Homeowner Insurance 101

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 21 Jul

Man protecting a toy house with his hands from dominoes falling on top of it from either end.
 

Not all insurance products are created equal. It is important to understand all the different insurance products to ensure you have proper coverage.

Below are the main insurance product options you will encounter with homeownership, and what they mean:

Default Insurance: This insurance is mandatory for homes where the buyer puts less than 20% down. In fact, default insurance is the reason that lenders accept lower down payments, such as 5% minimum, and actually helps these buyers access comparable interest rates typically offered with larger down payments. This insurance typically requires a premium, which is based on the loan-to-value ratio (mortgage loan amount divided by the purchase price). This premium can be paid in a single lump sum, or it can be added to your mortgage and included in your monthly payments.

Home (Property & Fire) Insurance: Next, we have another mandatory insurance option, property and fire coverage (or, home insurance, as most people know it by). This MUST be in place before you close the mortgage! It is especially important to note that not all homes or properties are insurable, so you will want to review this sooner rather than later. Keep in mind, with this coverage you may not have protection in the event of a flood or earthquake. You may need to purchase additional coverage to be protected from a natural disaster, depending on your location.

Title Insurance: When it comes to lenders, this insurance is mandatory with every single lender in Canada requiring you to purchase title insurance on their behalf. In addition, you have the option of purchasing this for yourself as a homeowner. The benefit of title insurance is that it can protect you from existing liens on the property’s title, but the most common benefit is protection against title fraud. Title fraud typically involves someone using stolen personal information, or forged documents to transfer your home’s title to him or herself – without your knowledge. Similar to default insurance, title insurance is charged as a one-time fee or a premium with the cost based on the value of your property.

Strata Insurance: When it comes to a stratum, their insurance covers the building itself – meaning in the event of an incident (fire, flood, etc.) the building can be re-established. This however only covers common areas; it does not cover the contents of YOUR particular unit, which requires a homeowner’s insurance policy. Personal insurance can also help with the strata deductible. For example, in the event of a flood that originates from a unit, it will require fixes to the unit itself (under your personal policy) plus the building (covered by the strata policy). Depending on the type of claim or damage, owners are often relocated to a hotel while the unit is being repaired and the personal insurance would also cover being displaced.

To ensure that you remain up-to-date with your strata insurance policies, it is vital that homeowners living within a stratum to check with management for a copy of the most recent insurance policy. Always take your strata and individual policy to an insurance agent to ensure you are aware of your coverage and that your individual homeowner’s policy is working in your favor. Investment property owners especially need to check their existing deductible against the updated deductible and insurance policies to avoid any future issues.

Mortgage Protection Plan: This coverage is optional, but any mortgage professional will tell you is extremely important. The purpose of the mortgage protection plan is to protect you, and your family, should something happen. It acts as a disability and a life insurance policy in regards to your mortgage. Typically, when you get approval for a mortgage, it is based on family income. If one of the partners in the mortgage is no longer able to contribute due to disability or death, a mortgage protection plan gives you protection for your mortgage payments.

If you have any questions about mortgage insurance or what are the best options for you, please do not hesitate to reach out to me at 647-883-7790 or by email at jag@dlcchoice.ca!

I would be happy to take a look at your existing plan and discuss your needs to help you find the perfect coverage to suit you and your family.

Appraisal Tips for Success

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 14 Jul

A home appraiser standing in front of a home
 

Before banks or lending institutions can consider loaning money for a property, they need to know the current market value of that property.

The job of an appraiser is to check the general condition of your home and determine a comparable market value based on other homes in your area. This is required for any buy or sell situation.

To help make the appraisal as smooth as possible and ensure you are getting top market value, check out the tips below:

  1. Clean Up: The appraiser is basing the value of your property on how good it looks. A good rule of thumb is to treat the appraisal like an open house! Stage it as you would a home for sale, clean and declutter every room, vacuum, and scrub – even consider adding a fresh coat of paint – to ensure your home is as presentable and appealing as possible. Where applicable remove personal stigma items such as alcohol or drug paraphernalia, any controversial pictures or flags, etc.
  2. Curb Appeal: First impressions can have a huge impact when it comes to an appraisal. Spending some time ensuring the outside of your property from your driveway entrance to front step is clean and welcoming can make a world of difference. Cut grass, water plants, maybe add flowers or hanging baskets to make things feel inviting and stage the yard with some lawn furniture to make it look like its own space.
  3. Visibility: The appraiser must be able to see every room of the home, no exceptions. YES, ever singly room including outbuildings, garage, closets, basement… Refusal to allow an appraiser to see any room can cause issues and potentially kill your deal. If there are any issues with any spaces of your home, be sure to take care of them in advance to allow the appraiser full access. NOTE: If there are tenants in your home, ensure you give them appropriate amount of notice for access. YES, every single room, outbuilding, closet, garage needs access. Otherwise, the appraiser will have to return at added expense to you.
  4. Upgrades and Features: Ensuring the appraiser is aware of any upgrades and features can go a long way. Make a list and include everything from plumbing and electrical to new floors, new appliances, etc. This way they have a reference as to what has been updated and how recent or professional that work was done. Knowing the age of the roof and HVAC items like water tank is important. Also, ensure the breaker box is MIN 100amps as most lenders cannot finance a home with amps under 100; older homes from the 1930 area are generally only 60amps. The same goes for knob and tube versus breaker set-ups. Upgrading is important and will add value.
  5. Be Prudent About Upgrades: While the bathroom and kitchen are popular areas, they are not necessarily the be-all-end-all for getting a higher home value. These renovations can be quite costly so it is a good idea to be prudent about how you spend your money and instead, focus on easy changes such as new paint, new light fixtures or plumbing and updated flooring to avoid breaking the bank while still having your home look fresh. Removing clutter, adding a new coat of paint and doing a deep clean will help make these spaces shine.
  6. Know Your Neighbourhood: You already know where you live better than the appraiser. Taking a look at similar homes in your neighbourhood and noting what they sold for will give you a ballpark. If your appraisal comes in low, you will be prepared to discuss with the appraiser the examples from your area and why you believe you property is worth more. In addition, keep in mind that appraisal values are based on recent sales data; if there have been zero sales in the area recently and time allows it, hold off on getting an appraisal done until some sales have been evident to ensure you’re getting the most value.
  7. Be Polite: The appraiser is there to get in and get out so let them have the run of the house while they are there. Do not follow them around and avoid asking them too many questions or making too many comments and simply be prepared should they have questions. Once they have completed the review of your home, that is a good time to bring up any comments you might have. Remember, the actual onsite inspection usually is only 15 minutes through the house but typically, the bulk of work for appraisals is at the desk, reviewing sales and other forms of research to create the appraisal report.
  8. Get a Copy of the Report: Even though the consumer generally pays for the report, it typically belongs to your mortgage professional who ordered it – and it is addressed for a single lender. If the lender is changed after the appraisal, a new one will need to be done up for the new lender. The consumer is NOT allowed to get a copy of the actual report unless the actually appraiser consents to it; this is to avoid any alterations to the information. However, don’t be shy! Ask me to review the report with you!
  9. Know The Costs: Every appraiser charges differently. If the lender allows for ordering appraisals direct, then I can shop around and fetch you the best price.

Don’t forget to contact me at 647-883-7790 or at jag@dlcchoice.ca if you have any questions about your existing home or mortgage, or if you are looking to sell and relocate in the future!

If you are interested in completing a mortgage application, click here.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – July 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 4 Jul

 

The biggest surprise recently has been the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. While the April inflation headline did tick up, and Q1 GDP data came in at a stronger-than-expected 3.2%, the April labour force data showed some easing in the jobs market.

The ratio of unemployment-to-job vacancies is now rising. Rather than signalling a rate hike before the announcement on June 7, the Bank chose to pre-empt any additional economic indicators.

Ironically, the May jobs data, released later that week, showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.2%, the first increase since before rate hikes began in March of last year. The Bank of Canada was particularly disturbed by the resurgence in home sales and prices in April. They argued that interest rates needed to be higher if the most interest-sensitive of all spending was rising.

That move by the central bank spooked the housing market, causing many to question their decisions to purchase. Expectations of any declines in the overnight policy rate this year vanished, and markets now expect at least one more hike this year.

Consumer spending does remain robust, as evidenced by the solid retail sales data for April. Moreover, many households have turned to credit cards to finance their spending—bolstered by inflation—and delinquency rates have risen.

Wage inflation remains strong, core inflation ticked up in April, and food inflation, though down from double-digit levels, is still far higher than a 2% inflation target would warrant.

The bank watchdog, OSFI, warned that the rising level of remaining amortizations of variable rate mortgages is a warning sign of continued risk for households that went into VRMs in droves when interest rates plunged in the first two years of the pandemic. New originations over that period were at rock-bottom rates, and variable mortgage rates were far below fixed. The situation has reversed today, and 3-to-4-year fixed mortgages dominate new mortgage originations.

Many VRM borrowers have hit their trigger points, where their monthly payments are no longer covering their interest costs—hence the negative amortizations of these loans at some Big Six Banks. OSFI is warning banks to address this immediately as renewals will mean at least a 30% rise in monthly payments if mortgage terms revert to 25- or even 30 years. OSFI has also increased the mandatory level of Tier One common equity relative to risk-weighted assets by 50 basis points. Currently, all the large Canadian banks fulfill this requirement.

Another significant milestone last month dramatically impacted the Canadian housing market. International migration to Canada spiked in 2022, taking population growth to 2.7%, the highest in the developed world and the strongest since the top of the Baby Boom in 1957. As of mid-June, Statistics Canada announced that the population is 40 million. The housing shortage is mounting, and housing starts are falling. Despite higher interest rates, demand for housing for rent or purchase has never been more robust.

While the federal government announced last year that they want to double housing construction to improve affordability over the next decade, Trudeau’s goal appears unachievable. This will continue to put upward pressure on rents and home prices over the longer term.

10 Money Saving Tips!

Financial Tips Jag Dhamrait 10 Jun

a pink piggy bank with change all around.

When it comes to saving money, there are a lot of little things you can do that add up to make a big difference!

Here are 10 of my favourite money-saving tips to help get you started today:

  1. Automatic Savings are one of the most effective ways to save because you can’t spend what you can’t access! Instruct your employer to transfer a certain amount from your paycheck each pay period into an RRSP or savings account (or both) or set up automatic transfers in your banking account to coincide with your payday.
  2. Consolidating Debt will result in a single monthly payment and lower interest costs! Many people don’t realize just how much money they are wasting on interest each month, especially if you have multiple loans or credit cards. Consolidating debt can help you gain control and maximize spend on the principal amounts to pay off loans faster.
  3. Budget with Cash if you have trouble with overspending or find it too easy to use your card. After your bills are paid, take out the remaining cash (spending money) and only use that. Once the cash is gone, you’re out of money until next payday! Having physical cash in hand can also help you think twice when making purchases.
  4. Buying in Bulk is a great way to save a bit here and a bit there when doing your regular grocery shop or purchasing other items. Know you’ll need more? Stock up at once for bulk savings, which will help you in the long run!
  5. Before Buying there are two things you should always do. The first is to wait at least 24 hours and the second is to shop around! If you still want to buy something the next day, make sure you get the best price available!
  6. Plan Your Meals. Most of us don’t have time to make breakfast (let alone lunch!) before we fly out the door for work. But what if I told you that getting up an hour earlier could save you over $100 a week!? Just think about how much you spend going out for breakfast AND lunch each day? Groceries are a lot cheaper and you can even prep a few days worth of meals on Sunday while you get ready for the week.
  7. Think in Hours versus Dollars every time you are looking to make a purchase, especially large ones to help you understand the TIME value of money. A new $24 Blu-Ray = 1 hour of work. A brand-new mattress = 41.67 hours of work. Understanding the time that went into earning money for a purchase can help with reconsidering frivolous items, or encourage you to look for the best deal on necessary products.
  8. Utility Savings can help you save each month! Don’t blast your A/C with all the doors in your house open, don’t pump the heat without sealing cracks and consider things like installing water-saving toilets and running cold-water wash cycles to save energy (and money!) every day.
  9. Master DIY – While sometimes you can spend $120 to make a $20 item yourself, there are some things that do benefit from DIY, such installing dimmer switches, that can help save you money in the long run.
  10. Save Windfalls and Tax Refunds for a rainy day. A good rule of thumb is to put 50% of bonuses, tax refunds or other windfalls into your savings account and put the rest against loans owing. While you might want to go on a shopping spree or plan a vacation, paying off your debt NOW will free you up in the future.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – June 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 Jun

Image of Dr. Sherry Cooper from Dominion Lending Centres
 

Once again, the Canadian economy is running hotter than expected by the Bank of Canada. The economy continues to exhibit excess demand conditions. In particular, labour markets are very tight, the unemployment rate is near a record low, and wages are rising by more than 5%.

Consumer spending is still strong, and the housing market has bounced considerably. Home sales were up 11% in April, prices are rising again in many regions, especially the GTA and GVA, and new listings are so slim that it is now a sellers’ market. This should bring some potential sellers off the sidelines in May and June. However, demand is likely to remain well more than supply, given the influx of many immigrants and the constraints on the construction of new housing.

The April inflation data was stronger than expected at 4.4%, indicating that the mid-year forecast of 3% might well be overly optimistic. Some are already calling for a rate hike by the central bank this month or in July. While that might be premature, the Bank will consider at least one more increase in the overnight policy rate if the May data is robust.

This is at a time when homeowners are already feeling the pinch of the rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. Homeowners who bought in 2020 and 2022 and financed with variable-rate mortgages are already under pressure. And those with fixed-rate mortgages will refinance at substantially higher interest rates.

Already, many households have monthly payments that do not cover the interest on their loans, let alone the principal. Many lenders are allowing extended amortization. CMHC announced they would not extend the amortization of newly insured mortgages beyond 25 years.

One thing is sure. Do not expect monetary policy easing any time this year.

How to Pay Off Your Mortgage Faster

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 10 May

Male and female couple at home on their laptop reading mortgage tips
 

When it comes to homeownership, many of us dream of the day we will be mortgage-free.

While most mortgages operate on a 25-year amortization schedule, there are some ways you can pay off your mortgage quicker!

  1. Review Your Payment Schedule: Taking a look at your payment schedule can be an easy way to start paying down your mortgage faster, such as moving to an accelerated bi-weekly payment schedule. While this will lead to slightly higher monthly payments, the overall result is approximately one extra payment on your mortgage per calendar year. This can reduce the total amortization by multiple years, which is an effective way to whittle down your amortization faster.
  2. Increase Your Mortgage Payments*: This is another fairly simple change you can execute today to start having more of an impact on your mortgage. Most lenders offer some sort of pre-payment privledge that allows you to increase your payment amount without penalty. This payment increase allowance can range from 10% to 20% payment increase from the original payment amount. If you earned a raise at work, or have come into some money, consider putting those funds right into your mortgage to help reduce your mortgage balance without you feeling like you are having to change your spending habits.
  3. Make Extra Payments*: For those of you who have pre-payment privileges on your mortgage, this is a great option for paying it down faster. The extra payment option allows you to do an annual lump-sum payment of 15-20% of the original loan amount to help clear out some of your loan! Some mortgages will allow you to increase your payment by this pre-payment privilege percentage amount as well. This is another great way to utilize any extra money you may have earned, such as from a bonus at work or an inheritance.
  4. Negotiate a Better Rate: Depending on whether you have a variable or a fixed mortgage, you may want to consider looking into getting a better rate to reduce your overall mortgage payments and money to interest. This is ideally done when your mortgage term is up for renewal and with rates starting to come back down, it could be a great opportunity to adjust your mortgage and save! This may be done with your existing lender OR moving to a new lender who is offering a lower rate (known as a switch and transfer).
  5. Refinance to a Shorter Amortization Period: Lastly, consider the term of your mortgage. If you’re mortgage is coming up for renewal, this is a great time to look at refinancing to a shorter amortization period. While this will lead to higher monthly payments, you will be paying less interest over the life of the loan. Knowing what you can afford and how quickly you want to be mortgage-free can help you determine the best new amortization schedule.

*These options are only available for some mortgage products. Check your mortgage package or reach out to me to ensure these options are available to you and avoid any potential penalties.

If you’re looking to pay your mortgage off quicker, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at 647-883-7790 or by email at jag@dlcchoice.ca! I can help review the above options and assist in choosing the most effective course of action for your situation.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – May 2023

Economic News Jag Dhamrait 1 May

Image of Dr. Sherry Cooper
 

It has been just over a year since the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates. While the economy has remained surprisingly resilient, the housing market has weakened sharply.

The Bank has remained on the sidelines for the past two Governing Council announcement dates, and home sales have edged upward in very tight markets.

There is a rapidly growing housing shortage. As population growth remains strong and immigration targets rise, new home construction cannot keep up with demand. Demand for rental properties is surging, and rents have risen sharply for new tenants.

Another factor that could slow the economy this year is the rise in monthly housing payments. For those with adjustable-rate mortgages, monthly payments have already risen sharply. Most of those with variable-rate loans with a fixed monthly cost has hit their trigger point, and the amount no longer covers any of the principle. Most banks have allowed negative amortization but will require borrowers to return to original 20-year amortizations upon renewal. This could be quite a shock to consumers over the next few years.

The Office for the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is very concerned about the risk associated with these loans. We will be hearing soon from OSFI regarding more restrictions on mortgage lending.

The great news is that inflation is falling quickly, down to only 4.3% in March. The central bank expects inflation to fall to about 3% by the end of this year. So, barring unforeseen inflation pressures, the Bank could pause for the rest of this year. Rate cuts, however, are unlikely until 2024.

The Canadian economy will likely slow as the year progresses. The most likely scenario is a mild recession later this year. As we move into 2024, interest rates will slowly decrease to about 2.5% for the overnight policy rate. The economy will rebound, and the Bank of Canada expects to hit its 2% target on inflation. That might be hard to achieve, given rapidly rising wages and continued inflation expectations.

Choosing Your Ideal Payment Frequency

Mortgage Tips Jag Dhamrait 26 Apr

Your payment schedule is the frequency that you make mortgage payments and ranges from monthly to bi-monthly, bi-weekly, accelerated bi-weekly or even weekly payments.

Below is a quick overview of what each of these payment frequencies mean:
Monthly Payments: A monthly payment is simply a single large payment, paid once per month; this is the default that sets your amortization. A 25-year mortgage, paid monthly, will take 25 years to pay off but includes the added burden of one larger payment coming from one employment pay period. With this payment frequency, you make 12 payments per year.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a monthly payment of $4,156.19. No term savings; no amortization savings.

Bi-Weekly Payments: A bi-weekly mortgage payment is a total of 26 payments per year, calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and divided by the 26 pay periods.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a bi-weekly payment of $1,915.98 with term savings of $177 and total amortization savings of $1,769.

Accelerated Bi-Weekly Payments: An accelerated bi-weekly mortgage payment is also 26 payments per year, but the payment amount is higher than a regular bi-weekly payment frequency. Opting for an accelerated bi-weekly payment will not only pay your mortgage off quicker, but it’s guaranteed to save you a significant amount of money over the term of your mortgage. This frequency also allows the mortgage payment to be split up into smaller payments vs a single, larger payment per month. This is especially ideal for households who get paid every two weeks as the reduction in cash flow is more on track with incoming income.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have accelerated bi-weekly payments of $2,078.10 with term savings of $1,217 and total amortization savings of $145,184. Plus, you would save 4 years, 12 months of payments by reducing scheduled amortization.

Weekly Payments: Similar to monthly payments, your weekly mortgage payment frequency is calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and dividing by 52 weeks in a year. In this case, you would make 52 payments a year on your mortgage.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have weekly payments of $957.50 with term savings of $253 and total amortization savings of $2,526. You can move to accelerated weekly payments to save even more!

Prepayment Privileges: In addition to fine-tuning your payment schedule, most mortgage products include prepayment privileges that enable you to pay up to 20% of the principal (the true value of your mortgage minus the interest payments) per calendar year. This can help reduce your amortization period (the length of your mortgage).

By exercising your prepayment privileges, you can take time off your mortgage. For instance:

  • Extra $50 bi-weekly is $32,883 total savings and an additional 1 year, 2 months time saved
  • Extra $100 bi-weekly is $62,100 in total savings and an additional 2 years, 3 months time saved on your mortgage
  • Extra $200 bi-weekly is $111,850 in total savings and an additional 4 years, 1 month of time saved on your mortgage.

Understanding the different payment frequencies can be key in managing your monthly cash flow. If you’re struggling to meet a large payment, breaking it up can be effective; while the same can be true of the opposite. Individuals struggling to make a weekly or bi-weekly payment, may benefit from one monthly sum where they have time to collect the funds.

Consider getting in touch with me today at: 647-883-7790 to determine what payment frequency is best for you OR you can download my app and calculate them for yourself!
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