In January, the Canadian bond market took quite a beating as interest rates rose roughly 30 basis points from their recent lows. The December housing data revealed a surge in sales, while inflation data showed just how difficult it may be to return to the 2% inflation target.

Core inflation remains above 3.5% despite flat economic activity in the fourth quarter.

While overall growth declined by 1.1% in Q3, we expect the final quarter of 2023 and Q1 of this year to post roughly zero growth. Nevertheless, labour markets remain relatively strong, and wage rates rise well above 5% year-over-year.

Since mid-year, the Bank of Canada has focused on the supply/demand balance, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. Last week’s Business Outlook Survey showed little to no improvement in those metrics, with corporate pricing behaviour somewhat encouraging on the path to normalization but still not there.

There is a way to go before we see sub-3% inflation sustainably. Until then, the bank will hold the overnight policy rate at 5%. The Bank of Canada made its first announcement of the year on January 24th, resulting in no change in the overnight rate for the fourth consecutive meeting.

While markets are anxiously looking forward to a series of interest rate cuts, it is too early for the Bank of Canada to take a more dovish tone. This week, they will issue their full economic forecast in the Monetary Policy Report.

Inflation remains critical to the outlook. The latest CPI report was not encouraging. Progress has been made in bringing inflation down, but plenty of work remains to get back to 2%. Rate cuts are coming this year, but the Bank of Canada will patiently await a further drop in inflation and inflation expectations. In the meantime, a continued rebound in housing markets will anticipate the future easing in mortgage rates.