Once again, the Canadian economy is running hotter than expected by the Bank of Canada. The economy continues to exhibit excess demand conditions. In particular, labour markets are very tight, the unemployment rate is near a record low, and wages are rising by more than 5%.

Consumer spending is still strong, and the housing market has bounced considerably. Home sales were up 11% in April, prices are rising again in many regions, especially the GTA and GVA, and new listings are so slim that it is now a sellers’ market. This should bring some potential sellers off the sidelines in May and June. However, demand is likely to remain well more than supply, given the influx of many immigrants and the constraints on the construction of new housing.

The April inflation data was stronger than expected at 4.4%, indicating that the mid-year forecast of 3% might well be overly optimistic. Some are already calling for a rate hike by the central bank this month or in July. While that might be premature, the Bank will consider at least one more increase in the overnight policy rate if the May data is robust.

This is at a time when homeowners are already feeling the pinch of the rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. Homeowners who bought in 2020 and 2022 and financed with variable-rate mortgages are already under pressure. And those with fixed-rate mortgages will refinance at substantially higher interest rates.

Already, many households have monthly payments that do not cover the interest on their loans, let alone the principal. Many lenders are allowing extended amortization. CMHC announced they would not extend the amortization of newly insured mortgages beyond 25 years.

One thing is sure. Do not expect monetary policy easing any time this year.