Dr. Sherry Cooper shares economic insights on Canada’s trade diversification, global partnerships, and economic outlook. Canada’s resale housing market showed its first broad signs of stabilization in June 2026. National home sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, a third consecutive monthly gain that left activity roughly 7% above its March level.

New listings fell 1.3%, tightening the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) back above the balanced-market midpoint for the first time this year. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was flat month-over-month, ending a run of declines that had persisted since January 2025, though it remained 3.6% below a year earlier.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell 6% from May to 238,971 units, and the six-month trend eased 2.8% to 248,123 units, which is the lowest level we’ve seen in about a year.

Across the provinces, sales momentum was broadly positive. Most provinces posted a month-over-month sales gain. Price performance split cleanly: benchmark values fell year-over-year in B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, and rose everywhere else, led by Newfoundland & Labrador (+10.8%). Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Quebec were tight seller’s markets, while Ontario was the only outright buyer’s market and B.C. the most oversupplied.

National starts fell 6% to a 238,971 SAAR, below the ~258,000 markets expected, with the decline concentrated in multi-unit construction. Ontario, Alberta, and B.C. led the pullback; Quebec and the smaller Prairie provinces bucked the trend. Among major metros, actual year-over-year starts rose in Toronto (+25%) and Montréal (+10%) but fell sharply in Vancouver (−35%).

The SNLR is the clearest single gauge of market balance: readings above ~60% lean toward sellers, below 45% toward buyers, and the 45–65% band is broadly balanced. The distribution captures June’s core theme — the Prairies, Quebec, and much of Atlantic Canada are tight, seller-favouring markets with rising prices, while Ontario and British Columbia remain loose and price-soft.

1. Stabilization, not recovery. Sales rose for a third straight month and the benchmark price stopped falling for the first time since January 2025, but the improvement is driven more by falling supply than surging demand.
2. Price weakness is concentrated. Year-over-year benchmark declines are confined to B.C. (−5.0%), Ontario (−4.6%), Alberta (−1.7%), and Nova Scotia (−1.3%); every other province posted gains.
3. Construction is cooling. Starts fell 6% with the trend at a one-year low, led by Ontario, Alberta, and B.C.; Quebec and the smaller Prairie provinces bucked the trend.
4. Metro divergence in building. Toronto (+25%) and Montréal (+10%) starts rose year-over-year while Vancouver dropped 35%.